Rising Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Raises Anxieties of Military Confrontation

Increasing concerns exist over the potential of warfare between East African neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive language has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in last year that his nation's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have often been tense. Following a long-standing battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader the army commander have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the border - and hinted at the wish to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

In the face of persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for sea access labeling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople alerted on recently that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Region

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, government media has displayed graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The leader of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before turning into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their common border, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a statement that the conflict was over – a move that won the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet ties have later worsened again.